Earth’s lower orbit is poised on the brink of a revolutionary change—one that may reshape how we exploit space and possibly even how we perceive the night sky. Within a few years, the number of satellites in Earth’s orbit has multiplied geometrically. Today, new applications to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) show that more than a million new satellites are possibly headed for low-Earth orbit (LEO). Such a satellite boom keeps researchers and regulators awake at night, threatening that our orbital backyard is on its way to getting congested, and more likely than not, hazardous.
A Sky Full of Satellites
From 2017 to 2022, reports submitted to the ITU by governments and companies around the world proposed launching over a million satellites into space, organized in roughly 300 enormous “megaconstellations.” To put that in perspective, it’s well over 100 times more satellites than currently occupy space. And it’s not just space giants such as the United States, China, or Russia working on it. Other nations, including Rwanda, Germany, France, Norway, and even the Solomon Islands, are also joining in.
The Megaconstellation Boom
Megaconstellations are enormous satellite constellations planned to work together, generally with the purpose of offering worldwide internet access. The most well-known is SpaceX’s Starlink, and it already features nearly 5,000 satellites in orbit, with countless more on the way. But the behemoth Starlink presence may soon be topped. Rwanda’s Cinnamon-937 initiative, for example, filed plans for a jaw-dropping 337,320 satellites.
The ITU, the UN agency that allocates the radio spectrum and orbital slots, plays a key role in satellite launch oversight. But the system is being pushed to its limits. In order to reserve space in orbit, governments file detailed requests on behalf of businesses—some businesses, however, are abusing this by seeking the same satellite networks through multiple nations, taking advantage of less stringent national standards.
SpaceX, for example, has filed through the U.S., Germany, Norway, and Tonga. OneWeb has also done so through the UK, France, and Mexico. This approach—a practice sometimes called “overfiling”—allows firms to book much more orbital space than they can hope to use, leaving it hard to discern which ventures are genuine and which are speculative.
The Real-World Risks of a Crowded Orbit
This is not only a bureaucratic issue—it’s a legitimate safety issue. The more satellites we crowd into low-Earth orbit, the higher the chances of collisions, which can create enormous clouds of debris. Those fields of debris pose hazards to other space vehicles, such as the International Space Station, and could render some orbits useless in the future.
Light pollution is an increasing concern as well. The more satellites reflecting sunlight, the more difficult it becomes for astronomers to observe the night sky. And when satellites do come to the end of their useful lives, uncontrolled reentries become hazards for human beings, property, and the environment.
New Rules—and Why They Might Not Be Enough
As concerns grew, the ITU revised its rules in 2019. Under the new regulations, firms will have to deploy 10 percent of their constellation two years after they launch their first satellite, 50 percent after five years, and the entire constellation after seven. However, because companies have up to seven years after their initial filing to launch even a single satellite, it could take a decade or more before it’s clear which projects are moving forward.
What Can Be Done?
Experts have also proposed various measures to keep low-Earth orbit from becoming a free-for-all. These include imposing tight limits on the size of constellations of satellites, larger fees for more massive filings, and posting financial bonds that are refunded only after their satellites are deorbited safely. These measures would help screen out fly-by-night projects, limit interference risks, and promote greater responsible use of orbiting space.
A Collective Duty towards Space’s Future
Low-Earth orbit is a limited, common resource. With space becoming more accessible and more actors entering the marketplace, the urgency to balance innovation with sustainability is mounting. If we are to continue to keep space open, safe, and useful to future generations, now is the moment to rethink how we manage the skies above us.
